Dale Pritchett, Publisher04.27.09
Printed Electronics Now: What do you see as the market potential for PE at this time?
Raghu Das: We think hat printed electronics will eventually impact most aspects of human endeavor, because it can go into so many different things and do so many new things. The status in 2009 is that the market for PE is $1.92 billion, and only 35 percent of that is predominantly printed. While the rest of the devices are not made by printing now, they are moving to printing, because a lot of companies are looking to get costs down and volume up. Of that $1.92 billion market, most of it is OLED displays made in East Asia by the major display makers. These are not printed today, but there is substantial work being undertaken on printed OLEDs, such as from Sumitomo. Photovoltaics make up the second largest segment of the PE market.
PEN: Has the market for PE grown as expected?
RD: Not yet. For example, Samsung a few years ago stated in a press release that they expected to ship 50 million OLED units by 2008; the latest information I saw from them earlier this year is that they are shipping out 2 million units in 2009. Certainly OLEDs have not grown as expected, after 20 years of work and about $8 billion of investment, and the market is $800 million. There is still a way to go, and things are taking a longer time in that sense.
On the other hand, some aspects have grown faster than expected. Photovoltaics have rocketed. PV has usually meant silicon-based cells, but now there have been huge investments in non-silicon photovoltaics and that is taking off. One example is First Solar making thin film photovoltaics based on cadmium telluride. Incredibly, First Solar last year overtook the world’s largest producer of silicon photovoltaics. First Solar was really a start-up company five years ago, with almost $1.3 billion of sales in 2008. So thin film photovoltaics are very exciting and there has been a lot of interest in that area. Another component we study is thin film transistors. There are now more than 500 organizations involved in their development, about half of those are companies and half are academic. But out of all of those companies last year, there was tiny revenue, nothing really commercial, only samples, licensing and prototyping. This year it may result in $10 million in revenues from companies such as Kovio and Polymer Vision.
There are a lot of companies in PE, and while it is still very embryonic, it nevertheless amounts to a very large market today, and we don’t see this technology as one that will just disappear given the needs from many different industries and the amount invested. For example, the world’s biggest light bulb makers – Philips, GE and Osram – also have huge PE programs because they eventually see the replacement of conventional light bulbs with printed or flexible versions. And similarly, the display companies eventually see OLEDs replacing LCDs.
PEN: I know that you are touching on this off and on, but what is your sense of timing for the industry?
RD: I think that the question has to be addressed by considering the different components. Many forms of thin film photovoltaics are commercially available now, and in the next two years a lot of roll-to-roll processing is coming on line for photovoltaics. We’re at that cusp now. OLED displays have been around for some time and while they are not showing exponential growth, there is certainly strong growth here. We don’t expect a hockey stick-style takeoff, but they are growing and there are many people involved in that.
Most of the industry is more embryonic, such as transistors, and we note that a number of companies have slipped their roadmaps or launch dates. Certainly in the next two to three years we will start to see a greater range of products.
PEN: The next question is the one that everyone wants to know: when do you anticipate high volume and production?
RD: It’s tricky because it depends on the type of component. In terms of displays for example, if we look at the LCD industry, that was $100 billion last year. We think that OLEDs will be worth $16 billion in 2019, so arguably that’s not high volume compared to what’s already out there. We see photovoltaics being used in very high volume in the next five to eight years when it really starts to take off because the price is being driven down and efficiencies up.
There are a lot of new applications emerging, such as E-book readers from Plastic Logic and printed RFID from Kovio and PolyIC. I think that one of the challenges for the industry is that no one knows what the killer applications are in the next few years. There is a lack of creative design for new products rather than replace anything.
PEN: What do you see as the most immediate applications for high volume for printed circuit production?
RD: One area that has been very fertile is using the knowledge that people have gained from printing conductors to reduce the cost of conventional electronics manufacture. One example of that is Seiko Epson, who told us that one customer went from a circuit board that they were etching and reduced the size by a third by using inkjet printing.
Going on to completely printed products, the most immediate applications that we are very excited about are e-book readers. There are about 12 of them on the market, and we know of a further four that will be launched shortly. Some of those will be flexible versions like Plastic Logic and Polymer Vision. Plastic Logic this morning referred to Amazon selling half a million of e-books last year and you can contrast that to the iPod, which we read recently sold 1.2 million in the first two years, so it is a pretty good start
PEN: What are the greatest needs in terms of materials and equipment?
RD: For materials, it is usually improving the mobility of materials. Unless you can meet the performance required for mass volume applications, it is very difficult to sell these products. It’s also not just about performance, it’s about having materials that offer very good barriers. For example, OLED displays unfortunately for the moment are competing with LCDs because they are on rigid structures, because there’s not a suitable barrier alternative to glass, and that means they are a rigid device. If people can come up with a good flexible barrier that would give them as long a life as glass would, that would lead to enormous applications for flexible OLEDs. There’s a lot of work going on with that, but that’s tough to do because OLED materials are very sensitive to moisture and oxygen. There are also similar needs for photovoltaics. Substrates are also an issue, as people need smooth low cost substrates.
In terms of equipment, one aspect that has much focus is the need for higher resolution printing equipment.
PEN: What are some of the most promising nanomaterials in production today?
RD: There has been a lot of work on zinc oxides and they are very promising because they offer very good mobility. They can be transparent, which makes them excellent for things like photovoltaics and displays.
There is a lot of work on carbon nanotubes and graphenes. Carbon nanotubes have been around a while but they have been expensive. They recently have come down a little in price and there have been major breakthroughs recently. Optomec for example has aerosol printed 5 Ghz transistors using carbon nanotubes. Increasingly we have seen more and more companies involved in that area. Another interesting materials is nanosilicon, which Kovio is involved with.
PEN: Would you like to talk about some of the more intriguing applications you are seeing right now?
RD: There is a lot of work being done on smart textiles. There are companies that are integrating buttons into clothing to control music players, and there is also a lot of work on heated jackets too.
We think that health care is a very fertile because it has many needs that printed electronics can address. There is a huge demographic problem with people living a lot longer, but the packaging or interface with customers has not improved.
We also think that smart substrates are quite interesting. There’s a whole range of polymers that can change shape or move as you apply voltage to them. They are being applied in all sorts of waysThey can be used to allow elderly people to get into packaging easily. You don't want a seven-year-old child to get into drugs but you want the 80-yeear-old to get into it, so it has to be easy to open. You can do that by having some sort of electronic device whereby you type in a number and then the polymers unlock, so the elderly person gets into it rather than the child.
PEN: There have been some notable start-ups that have failed. Are there any lessons that have been learned from them for the new start-ups to make sure they don’t go down the same path?
RD:The ones that we have seen fail have done so for different reasons. Probably the most common reason is that there has been bad management. There are also some that have no focus or vision, that are in perpetual R&D and investors do want products at some point. There have been a variety of reasons why companies have failed and unfortunately that puts off potentially future investment.
In terms of a start-up, it is prudent to prove before you spend too much that you have something that does work and is scaleable, and then there will be interest by bigger companies. We have seen that from companies like BASF, the world’s largest chemical company at $40 billion, having invested in tiny start-ups like Rieke Metals and Polyera, which employ no more than a small handful of people. It is very much an industry of collaboration.
PEN: Is the economic recession impacting the printed electronics field?
RD: It is interesting talking to people at the show. A lot of them say that they are busier than ever before. Some say that some of their customers are having to delay projects due to lack of funds for new projects. However, a lot of people who are in this are in it for a long-term commitment. For example, we have done a lot of work with consumer packaged goods companies recently, and companies such as Unilever are increasing their work on printed electronics and they are putting a lot of work because they want new products and brand enhancements.
Innovation has not slowed down. We have seen, if anything, an increase in innovation, with more breakthroughs coming out every week. The bigger danger is if the industry does not conceive the right products in a timely fashion, spending too long on wrong applications or wrong technology.
I’m not convinced that the recession will have a major impact. The industry is so diverse. Things like photovoltaics will always happen and other things may be delayed a little bit, but they will eventually happen. That’s the good thing about printed electronics: it’s not just one product but an enabling technology.
PEN: How do you see printed electronics revolutionizing the world that we live in, looking even as far as how our children’s lives will be affected?
RD: I think eventually we will have electronics around us in a much more ubiquitous way. We are confined at the moment due to the expense and form factor of devices to discrete electronic and electrical devices, such as cell phones, our watches and calculators. The lower cost concept of electronics means that we can start integrating it into many more things. Items, furniture, buildings will get much smarter and it will be driven by consumer needs, tackling big issues in health care for example. I think a lot of the electronics we use will disappear – they will be invisible or embedded in the things around us.
Raghu Das, CEO, IDTechEx |
PEN: Has the market for PE grown as expected?
RD: Not yet. For example, Samsung a few years ago stated in a press release that they expected to ship 50 million OLED units by 2008; the latest information I saw from them earlier this year is that they are shipping out 2 million units in 2009. Certainly OLEDs have not grown as expected, after 20 years of work and about $8 billion of investment, and the market is $800 million. There is still a way to go, and things are taking a longer time in that sense.
On the other hand, some aspects have grown faster than expected. Photovoltaics have rocketed. PV has usually meant silicon-based cells, but now there have been huge investments in non-silicon photovoltaics and that is taking off. One example is First Solar making thin film photovoltaics based on cadmium telluride. Incredibly, First Solar last year overtook the world’s largest producer of silicon photovoltaics. First Solar was really a start-up company five years ago, with almost $1.3 billion of sales in 2008. So thin film photovoltaics are very exciting and there has been a lot of interest in that area. Another component we study is thin film transistors. There are now more than 500 organizations involved in their development, about half of those are companies and half are academic. But out of all of those companies last year, there was tiny revenue, nothing really commercial, only samples, licensing and prototyping. This year it may result in $10 million in revenues from companies such as Kovio and Polymer Vision.
There are a lot of companies in PE, and while it is still very embryonic, it nevertheless amounts to a very large market today, and we don’t see this technology as one that will just disappear given the needs from many different industries and the amount invested. For example, the world’s biggest light bulb makers – Philips, GE and Osram – also have huge PE programs because they eventually see the replacement of conventional light bulbs with printed or flexible versions. And similarly, the display companies eventually see OLEDs replacing LCDs.
PEN: I know that you are touching on this off and on, but what is your sense of timing for the industry?
RD: I think that the question has to be addressed by considering the different components. Many forms of thin film photovoltaics are commercially available now, and in the next two years a lot of roll-to-roll processing is coming on line for photovoltaics. We’re at that cusp now. OLED displays have been around for some time and while they are not showing exponential growth, there is certainly strong growth here. We don’t expect a hockey stick-style takeoff, but they are growing and there are many people involved in that.
Most of the industry is more embryonic, such as transistors, and we note that a number of companies have slipped their roadmaps or launch dates. Certainly in the next two to three years we will start to see a greater range of products.
PEN: The next question is the one that everyone wants to know: when do you anticipate high volume and production?
RD: It’s tricky because it depends on the type of component. In terms of displays for example, if we look at the LCD industry, that was $100 billion last year. We think that OLEDs will be worth $16 billion in 2019, so arguably that’s not high volume compared to what’s already out there. We see photovoltaics being used in very high volume in the next five to eight years when it really starts to take off because the price is being driven down and efficiencies up.
There are a lot of new applications emerging, such as E-book readers from Plastic Logic and printed RFID from Kovio and PolyIC. I think that one of the challenges for the industry is that no one knows what the killer applications are in the next few years. There is a lack of creative design for new products rather than replace anything.
PEN: What do you see as the most immediate applications for high volume for printed circuit production?
RD: One area that has been very fertile is using the knowledge that people have gained from printing conductors to reduce the cost of conventional electronics manufacture. One example of that is Seiko Epson, who told us that one customer went from a circuit board that they were etching and reduced the size by a third by using inkjet printing.
Going on to completely printed products, the most immediate applications that we are very excited about are e-book readers. There are about 12 of them on the market, and we know of a further four that will be launched shortly. Some of those will be flexible versions like Plastic Logic and Polymer Vision. Plastic Logic this morning referred to Amazon selling half a million of e-books last year and you can contrast that to the iPod, which we read recently sold 1.2 million in the first two years, so it is a pretty good start
PEN: What are the greatest needs in terms of materials and equipment?
RD: For materials, it is usually improving the mobility of materials. Unless you can meet the performance required for mass volume applications, it is very difficult to sell these products. It’s also not just about performance, it’s about having materials that offer very good barriers. For example, OLED displays unfortunately for the moment are competing with LCDs because they are on rigid structures, because there’s not a suitable barrier alternative to glass, and that means they are a rigid device. If people can come up with a good flexible barrier that would give them as long a life as glass would, that would lead to enormous applications for flexible OLEDs. There’s a lot of work going on with that, but that’s tough to do because OLED materials are very sensitive to moisture and oxygen. There are also similar needs for photovoltaics. Substrates are also an issue, as people need smooth low cost substrates.
In terms of equipment, one aspect that has much focus is the need for higher resolution printing equipment.
PEN: What are some of the most promising nanomaterials in production today?
RD: There has been a lot of work on zinc oxides and they are very promising because they offer very good mobility. They can be transparent, which makes them excellent for things like photovoltaics and displays.
There is a lot of work on carbon nanotubes and graphenes. Carbon nanotubes have been around a while but they have been expensive. They recently have come down a little in price and there have been major breakthroughs recently. Optomec for example has aerosol printed 5 Ghz transistors using carbon nanotubes. Increasingly we have seen more and more companies involved in that area. Another interesting materials is nanosilicon, which Kovio is involved with.
PEN: Would you like to talk about some of the more intriguing applications you are seeing right now?
RD: There is a lot of work being done on smart textiles. There are companies that are integrating buttons into clothing to control music players, and there is also a lot of work on heated jackets too.
We think that health care is a very fertile because it has many needs that printed electronics can address. There is a huge demographic problem with people living a lot longer, but the packaging or interface with customers has not improved.
We also think that smart substrates are quite interesting. There’s a whole range of polymers that can change shape or move as you apply voltage to them. They are being applied in all sorts of waysThey can be used to allow elderly people to get into packaging easily. You don't want a seven-year-old child to get into drugs but you want the 80-yeear-old to get into it, so it has to be easy to open. You can do that by having some sort of electronic device whereby you type in a number and then the polymers unlock, so the elderly person gets into it rather than the child.
PEN: There have been some notable start-ups that have failed. Are there any lessons that have been learned from them for the new start-ups to make sure they don’t go down the same path?
RD:The ones that we have seen fail have done so for different reasons. Probably the most common reason is that there has been bad management. There are also some that have no focus or vision, that are in perpetual R&D and investors do want products at some point. There have been a variety of reasons why companies have failed and unfortunately that puts off potentially future investment.
In terms of a start-up, it is prudent to prove before you spend too much that you have something that does work and is scaleable, and then there will be interest by bigger companies. We have seen that from companies like BASF, the world’s largest chemical company at $40 billion, having invested in tiny start-ups like Rieke Metals and Polyera, which employ no more than a small handful of people. It is very much an industry of collaboration.
PEN: Is the economic recession impacting the printed electronics field?
RD: It is interesting talking to people at the show. A lot of them say that they are busier than ever before. Some say that some of their customers are having to delay projects due to lack of funds for new projects. However, a lot of people who are in this are in it for a long-term commitment. For example, we have done a lot of work with consumer packaged goods companies recently, and companies such as Unilever are increasing their work on printed electronics and they are putting a lot of work because they want new products and brand enhancements.
Innovation has not slowed down. We have seen, if anything, an increase in innovation, with more breakthroughs coming out every week. The bigger danger is if the industry does not conceive the right products in a timely fashion, spending too long on wrong applications or wrong technology.
I’m not convinced that the recession will have a major impact. The industry is so diverse. Things like photovoltaics will always happen and other things may be delayed a little bit, but they will eventually happen. That’s the good thing about printed electronics: it’s not just one product but an enabling technology.
PEN: How do you see printed electronics revolutionizing the world that we live in, looking even as far as how our children’s lives will be affected?
RD: I think eventually we will have electronics around us in a much more ubiquitous way. We are confined at the moment due to the expense and form factor of devices to discrete electronic and electrical devices, such as cell phones, our watches and calculators. The lower cost concept of electronics means that we can start integrating it into many more things. Items, furniture, buildings will get much smarter and it will be driven by consumer needs, tackling big issues in health care for example. I think a lot of the electronics we use will disappear – they will be invisible or embedded in the things around us.